Thursday, May 12, 2016

Climate Central predicts we will keep on feeding the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast more and more through 2040.

The Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast. Source: Sandara.

The misleading headline reads:

Global 2040 Forecast Sees Only Slight Fall in Fossil Fuels

Article by Bobby Magill,, 11 May 2016

I doubt he wrote the headline, though.

Now, snippets from the rest of the story.

Despite the urgency to cut greenhouse gas emissions as climate change bears down on the globe, fossil fuel use is not likely to change much in the coming decades. Though renewable energy will grow quickly though 2040, gasoline and diesel will still move most of the world’s vehicles, and coal will still be the largest single source of carbon emissions.

Those are the conclusions of a forecast released by the federal government on Wednesday for how the world will use energy and what its carbon dioxide emissions will be over the next 25 years.
Feeding the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast.
Gasoline and diesel will likely remain the globe's biggest transportation fuels in the coming decades.
Credit: Michael Kappel/flickr via Climate Central.

The US Energy Information Administration predicts that as a whole, we will be feeding the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast more and more emissions (those are the derivatives, dear reader) through 2040:

Credit: US EIA via Climate Central.
Global carbon emissions from energy consumption are expected to grow at an average rate of 1 percent per year between 2012 and 2040, growing a total 34 percent in that time as fossil fuels provide the world with more than three quarters of its energy.

“With existing policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will go from about 32 billion metric tons in 2012 to something like 43 billion metric tons out to the year 2040,” EIA administrator Adam Sieminski said.
And will consumption of fossil fuels decrease as a whole though 2040? Noooooooo...!

Look here:

Credit: US EIA via Climate Central.
Unless there are unexpected changes in global climate policy over the next 25 years, coal will still be the world’s king of carbon emissions in 2040.

Coal is expected to account for 38 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions in 2040, down from 43 percent in 2012. Annual growth of coal use by that time is expected to be about 0.6 percent. In 1990, coal was responsible for 39 percent of global carbon emissions. Natural gas, by comparison, will account for 26 percent of global carbon emissions in 2040, up from 20 percent in 2012.

Although renewables will enlarge from about 12 to about 25 percent, fossil fuels will still hold the lion's share at 75 percent. And the actual amount of fossil fuels that will be consumed in 2014 will be larger than the actual amount consumed in 2012!

More here.

We will probably break through 500 ppm of CO2 in the Atmosphere vs 400 ppm today, and definitely through 500 ppm of CO2e. We're at 485 ppm CO2e already and we're already making the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast more and more active! See my sister blog, 2016 is strange!.

Imagine how bad the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast will behave when we're at 500ppm.

Tip o' th' hat to Elaine Meinel Supkis.

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