Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Citi Pirates' Group

I just thought I'd make a commentary about the Citigroup Gnomes boarding the good ship United States (still piloted by Bush, Paulson and Brenenke) and making off with $25 bn additional plunder with promises to come back and plunder $306 bn more in the future to "cover their losses" from their bed derivatives bets so they won't get devoured by the Derivatives Beast.


For now, a cartoon.


Saturday, November 15, 2008

Two Cartoons



The first one I thought of Chicken Little, who said to Henny Penny, Goosey Loosey and Foxy Loxy, "The sky is falling!" Well, a lot of left leaning people thought the sky was falling for eight long years are now cautiosly hoping that Obama will hold it up. Other people, too. As if one man can reverse all the consequences of the sins of the people in Washington, Wall Street, and the rest of Corporate America. Heh.




The second one was inspired by Elaine Meinel Supkis's many gnome drawings. Except this one looks like a portrait that hung on some gnome's wall!


Friday, November 14, 2008

My Take on Developing All That Oil by 2030

Given the current financial crisis, including the Derivatives unravelling, US Gov't inability to sell 92% of its T-bill offer on the 10th, and general Wall Street cock-up, here's my opinion that there will be sufficient financing or adequate capital to develop oil resources sufficient to attain the production flows predicted by the IEA 'til 2030:


Thursday, November 13, 2008

Looks Like Peak Oil is History, or Imminent


Graph credit:

World Oil Production in IEA's Reference Scenario (IEA WEO 2008 Slide 8) Source: (pdf)

From The Wall Street Journal Blog

Peak Oil: Get Ready for the Oil-Supply Crunch, IEA Says

Lower oil prices these days are both a result of the economic slowdown and a possible cushion. But they could be a very mixed blessing. The Paris based International Energy Agency is worried about an oil supply crunch in coming years. It’s not due to geology—the IEA says the world has plenty of oil, in one form or another. But trying to match oil supplies to growing oil demand in coming years is a Herculean task made all the harder by cheapish crude prices which make oil companies think twice about new investments.

The biggest challenge will come between 2010 and 2015, the IEA says in its 2008 World Energy Outlook. For the next couple of years, the oil pipeline is well supplied. But that trails off after 2010. By 2015, the world needs to find an additional 7 million barrels per day of oil above and beyond the projects currently in the pipeline. And to get that oil to market those projects need to get started now. But now’s not a good time . . .


From The Oil Drum:

Unfortunately, recent market events, only indirectly related to oil, will now likely set July 2008 in stone as the date of maximum world oil production, despite the 'best-best case' scenario portrayed in the IEA report. Up against near double digit depletion rates and higher cost (lower energy gain) prospects, the oil industry now also faces a growing lack of confidence in the international financial system where near herculean investment is needed ($26 trillion = 37 times the recent controversial $700 billion bailout package in US), and credit, especially when the price of oil is well below the marginal cost of extraction (at 86mbpd) makes approving new projects, let along continuing existing production, problematic. Though not explicitly stated, one may infer that there is now increased risk that these investments will not be made.
And where are we going to get $26 Trillion to eke out a peak in 2030 when our economy is being killed by a credit crunch that itself is being caused by the just-barely-beginning-of-the-unwinding of over ONE QUADRILLION DOLLARS IN DERIVATIVES?!?! Even more so, when the price in oil is being hammered daily by the collapse of the commodities bubble, which so recently caused great inflation in consumables (food, fuel, etc)?

Looks to me we won't get peak oil in 2030, but much, much sooner due to lack of investment using credit (debt).

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

On Peak Oil




A long time ago, on a message board far, far away, I announced the existence of this blog with some fantasy route markers I asked the other board members to look at.



A certain John H. Weeks III asked this...



"That page makes a statement about 'peak oil.' No doubt that state will be reached someday. But you appear to state that it has already happened.



"If that is so, how do you reconcile the following two facts:



"1) the amount of proven oil reserves is at an all time high this year in 2008.



"2) the amount of proven oil reserves has been higher each decade than the decade before going back to 1890.



"These are both based on data from the American Society of Petroleum Engineers.



"If the amount of [proven] reserves keeps going up, and we are not even actively exploring many promising areas, then how can one state that peak oil is even in the near future, let alone happening now?"



What I said in reply didn't satisfy him...



'At The Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com one can find facts on discoveries and annual production rates. I have found there that discoveries each year are now less than the annual production. Doesn't sound like all-time highest proven reserves to me. The site also includes professional opinions by petroleum company geologists (nearly always cited in a mainstream media link) that Peak Oil is imminent!



'It has also been proven that the maximum amount discovered in any one year, globally, was in 1964. In the US that event was in the 1930s and peak oil production in the US was in 1971 and has declined ever since. The key is not the actual amount of proven reserves but the actual production! And since 2005, oil production has been on an irregular, bumpy plateau.



' "These are both based on data from the American Society of Petroleum Engineers."
'It would be nice of you to provide a link.



' "If the amount of [proven] reserves keeps going up, and we are not even actively exploring many promising areas, then how can one state that peak oil is even in the near future, let alone happening now?"



'Define "many promising areas." Sometimes these areas prove not to hold as much as promised, or have potential extraction costs that make exploitation uneconomical or even unfeasible, even with environmental regulations waived. Also, politics, equipment shortages and a credit crunch could pose difficulties in exploring those areas. Doesn't mean we shouldn't try.'
Well, this is what Mr. Weeks wrote back to me:



"Production rates are an artificial number that is based more on politics than anything else. The middle east could pump far more oil right now than what they do, but they don't because they want to keep prices high. It is the total amount of oil that we have discovered that is the key statistic here.



" 'It has also been proven that the maximum amount discovered in any one year, globally, was in 1964. In the US that event was in the 1930s and peak oil production in the US was in 1971 and has declined ever since. The key is not the actual amount of proven reserves but the actual production! And since 2005, oil production has been on an irregular, bumpy plateau.'



"As shown above, the is 180 degrees backwards. 2008 might top 1964 with the huge strike off the coast of Brazil.



" ' "These are both based on data from the American Society of Petroleum Engineers."



" 'It would be nice of you to provide a link.'



" It doesn't take too much effort on your part to google up that group. They are the source for oil statistics, just like NEMA is the standard for electrical codes and electrical safety.



" ' "If the amount of proven reserves keeps going up, and we are not even actively exploring many promising areas, then how can one state that peak oil is even in the near future, let alone happening now?" '



"We are not exploring at rates that we have in the past because we have such high proven reserves. We don't need to find more oil, we need to pump the oil that we already know about. Oil wells are expensive to drill and operate. You maximize your profits by using existing wells more rather than drilling new wells.



" 'Define "many promising areas." Sometimes those areas prove not to hold as much oil as promised, or have potential extraction costs that make exploitation uneconomical or even unfeasible, even with environmental regulations waived."
Well, let me just pick this reply apart for the vultures to eat...



"Production rates are an artifical number that is based more on politics than anything else. The middle east could pump far more oil right now than what they do, but they don't because they want to keep prices high. It is the total amount of oil that we have discovered that is the key statistic here."



No only do the Middle Eastern countries want to keep oil prices high (above $100.00) but they also want to keep some of their reserves that still remain for future generations so their kids won't be forced to go back to riding camels! Before I go onto discovery statistics, though, I have something else to say about production. Although politics does have a lot to do this, sometimes politics causes people to LIE about the real reason they are not pumping out as much as (we, Obama and Bush think) they could. In other words, the Middle Eastern countries could be hitting their geological limits! This unverified "fact" could be true: note the deceleration of the increase of oil production for the whole planet starting around 1998 (this can be readily observed by viewing annual production graphs that can be readily googled).



No on to discoveries: apparently there are two kinds of terms for "discoveries" in the petroleum geologist and engineering community -- definitely at least as defined by M. King Hubbert in his peak oil theses.



First: what I called discoveries, are known as "hits."



Second: "discoveries" as defined by Mr. Hubbert at least are the cumulative oil produced up to a given year plus the known amount of reserves remaining in the ground for that same year. (Oh, God, that definition makes my brain hurt!)



Production: well, that's obvious.



The source I shall be quoting (and graphs therefrom I shall post in due time) uses the annual statistics to obtain a final total of reserves and an approximate peak year for "hits," "discoveries" and "production." The source is: Beyond Oil, The View from Hubbert's Peak, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Hill and Wang, a division of Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, publishers, 19 Union
Square West, New York, NY 10003. Available at your local bookstore (please patronize the mom 'n' pops) or Amazon dot com. Here goes.



Page 49:



"We can put together composite picture of the world oil situation by coaxing production, discoveries, and hits onto one graph. Here is the numerical scoreboard for the best-fitting lines:"



Production





Years where (annual production) / (square of cumulative production) is constant: 1983-2003
Constant "a" for 1983-2003 [aka (annual production) / (square of cumulative production): 0.059
Q[t] (estimated grand total of cumulative production for all of oil production history, past and future: 2.013 Trillion Barrels
Predicted year of Peak production: 2005
Percentage of Q[t} used up: 49%



Discoveries



Years where (annual discoveries) / (square of cumulative discoveries) is constant: 1976-2002
Constant "a" for 1983-2003 [aka (annual discoveries) / (square of cumulative discoveries): 0.072
Q[t] (estimated grand total of cumulative discoveries for all of oil production history, past and future: 2.013 Trillion Barrels
Predicted year of Peak discoveries: 1978
Percentage of Q[t} discovered: 82%



Hits



Years where (annual hits) / (square of cumulative hits) is constant: 1976-2002
Constant "a" for 1983-2003 [aka (annual hits) / (square of cumulative hits): 0.072
Q[t] (estimated grand total of cumulative hits for all of oil production history, past and future: 2.013 Trillion Barrels
Predicted year of Peak hits: 1964
Percentage of Q[t} hit: 94%



THESE LAST TWO SETS OF NUMBERS ARE NOT GOOD. For if the total amount of oil that we have discovered is the key statistic then we have ALREADY DISCOVERED 84% OF ALL THE OIL WE EVER WILL DISCOVER, and we ahve ALREADY HIT UPON 94% OF ALL THE OIL WE HAVE EVER HIT.



And here is the combined graph from page 50. Colored in to be more obvious.




What the key statistics are telling us is that we are so severely screwed. And the recent July 1008 of an all-time high (so far) of oil production shows us that politics have more to do oil production than anything else. Whether another all-time high can be achieved two or three decades from now remains to be seen.

" 'It has also been proven that the maximum amount discovered in any one year, globally, was in 1964. In the US that event was in the 1930s and peak oil production in the US was in 1971 and has declined ever since. The key is not the actual amount of proven reserves but the actual production! And since 2005, oil production has been on an irregular, bumpy plateau.'

"As shown above, the is 180 degrees backwards. 2008 might top 1964 with the huge strike off the coast of Brazil."

And as shown above, even if "the is 180 degrees backwards," we are still not out of the woods, and likely never will, so long as we, the world, remain oil-dependent. And the "huge strike off the coat of Brazil" wasn't that big to begin with. And the amount of reserves that hit was reported to contain was, from what I remember, reduced.

I will have choice words to say about 'proven reserves' a little further down in this post. But first...

" ' "These are both based on data from the American Society of Petroleum Engineers."

" 'It would be nice of you to provide a link.'

" It doesn't take too much effort on your part to google up that group. They are the source for oil statistics, just like NEMA is the standard for electrical codes and electrical safety."
Well I did google that group up, and guess what: it doesn't show up. Which probably means, it doesn't exist, PERIOD. HAHAHA. The closest relatives that do exist are the Society of Professional Engineers and the American Society of Petroleum Operation Engineers.

So I looked for petroleum statistics and guess what I found: Statistics on proven reserves by the USGS. Source: http://http://www.spe.org/spc-site/spe/spc/industry/reserves/OGR_Mapping_Final_Report.pdf Scroll down to page 21.

Quote: "Users should be aware of the 'reserves' terminology used in current USGS reports as illustrated in this chart based on results information in the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000."

The chart that follows:


World Excluding United States (conventional)
Oil - billion barrels
F95 F50 F05 Mean
1 - Cumulative Production 539
2 - Remaining Reserves 859
3 - Known Reserves (1+2) 1398
4 - Reserves Growth 192 612 1031 612
5 - Undiscovered 334 607 1107 649
6 - Future Volumes (2+5) 1508
7 - Future Grown Volumes (2+4+5) 2120
8 - Total Endowment (1+2+4+5) 2659

The USGS defines "reserves" as cumulative production plus remaining reserves that are still in ground. HAHAHA. These clowns actually include the amount that has already been extracted, shipped or piped, refined, shipped or piped again, SOLD, and BURNT or otherwise CONSUMED by the end user! If you or I went into a bank to get a loan, and the banker asks us how much savings we have, would we include the amount we have already withdrawn from our various savings accounts and SPENT? HAHAHA. Yet that is the logic the USGS uses here. No wonder the amount of "reserves" have been at an all time high this year in 2008, and have been higher each decade than the decade before going back to 1890!

If I include the amount of money I have spent since finishing college as 'wealth,' I, an ordinary middle-class citizen, would be fabulously wealthy!

And note how the USGS gets at the 'proven' numbers: by obtaining the mean, not by 95% probability (F95) of attainment! For clearly the future volumes will be dependent on politics and finance, assuming the Total Endowment is the amount that's already hit upon. If we are talking about future hits in this Endowment, then good luck with the hits, given the current credit crunch and geopolitical climate! HAHAHA.


So, let us get a more realistic set of numbers, given the current financial and political issues that are out and about:

World Excluding United States (conventional) (2000)
Oil - billion barrels
F95 F50 F05 Mean
1 - Cumulative Production 539
2 - Remaining Reserves 859
3 - Known Reserves (1+2) 1398
4 - Reserves Growth 192 612 1031 612
5 - Undiscovered 334 607 1107 649
6 - Future Volumes (2+5) 1192 1466 1966 1508
7 - Future Grown Volumes (2+4+5) 1385 2078 2997 2120
8 - Total Endowment (1+2+4+5) 1924 2617 3536 2659

And one can add to these numbers 228 billion barrels for Total Endowment per M. King Hubbert or 362 billion barrels per USGS for the United States to obtain global totals. So for Total Endowment, 95% probability, we get 1924 Gb plus (assumed) 228 Gb for a conservative planetary Total Endowment of 2.152 trillion barrels. Much closer to M. King Hubbert's estimated planetary Global Endowment than the USGS's mean of 3.021 trillion! THESE ARE NOT COMFORTING DATA, PEOPLE!

And Mr. Deffeyes shows that by data he is privy to that in 2005 the cumulative production (and consumption) was about 1 trillion barrels. Just less than half of 2.152 trillion. And peak oil is likely to happen when about half the oil endowment is consumed!

" ' "If the amount of proven reserves keeps going up, and we are not even actively exploring many promising areas, then how can one state that peak oil is even in the near future, let alone happening now?" '

"We are not exploring at rates that we have in the past because we have such high proven reserves. We don't need to find more oil, we need to pump the oil that we already know about. Oil wells are expensive to drill and operate. You maximize your profits by using existing wells more rather than drilling new wells.

" 'Define "many promising areas." Sometimes those areas prove not to hold as much oil as promised, or have potential extraction costs that make exploitation uneconomical or even unfeasible, even with environmental regulations waived."

Of these three paragraphs, the last is mine. The second appears to be Mr. Weeks' response to it.
We are also not exploring at rates that we have in the past because we have a shortage of exploratory drilling rigs - all such rigs are spoken for by exploration commitments for the next five years! And it is not likely that exploration will expand due to the credit crunch. And 'wildcat' wells will be few and far between, for not only being obviously expensive to drill and operate, they are also chancy. Even with the perquisite non-drilling exploration (seismic survey, remote sensing, etc.) that is likely to precede them -- even more so, now that that credit is so much tighter than ever since the Great Depression. So of course the oil producers are going to maximize their profits by using their present wells, as much as they can. That is stating the obvious.







Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Fantasy Route Markers - Newfoundland And Labrador


This route marker is a more colorful version of the previous route marker that Newfoundland / Labrador had. I made the "ROUTE" banner and surround white, and added the provincial tourism logo.

Canadian Route Markers - Prince Edward Island



Here are two samples of a recoloring of Prince Edward Island's route marker. One has trees in summer, the other in autumn.






Canadian Route Markers - Nova Scotia

Here are some ideas I came up with for Nova Scotia's Arterials, Trunk Routes and Collector Roads. The Arterials' marker patterned after Quebec's autoroute marker; Trunk Routes after the current NS Arterial sign but with a green semi-circular field instead of blue; and Collectors a plain square in US county road colors, plus a pale yellow for visibility, topped of with a NS Flag emblem.




Canadian Route Markers - Ontario

Here are two samples of markers for Ontario's 400-series highways, patterned after the Autoroute markers for the province next door, Quebec.




Brazilian National Route Marker

I thought the Brazilian National Route Marker would look a lot nicer if the banner at top was replaced with graphics from the brzilian flag, and the BR- prefix dropped from the number at the bottom. Like this:
The grey is outside the sign limits.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Things are NOT working on these computers!

First of all, I tried logging in at noontime and Blogspot would NOT recognize my password! Now I was trying to upload photos and it's just takiing FOR EVER.

Which means posting the fictional Canadian Route Markers that I came up with will have to wait another day.

And a post on Peak Oil, another day still.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

More Fantasy Route Markers Coming Soon

Monday I'll be posting fantasy route markers for the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Ontario and Nova Scotia.

Three of the provinces I don't have signs anywhere on the net yet, but the ones for Ontario may be viewed at "The Great International Highway Makeover," http://http://www.us-highways.com/new_signs.htm .

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Ubergnome von Bushreich

The actions of Treasury Sec. Hank Paulson demonstrates the powers "given" to him by the Bailout Bill, HB 1422 (do I have that right?). Particularly given the ultimatum he gave nine banksters a couple of weeks ago: "We WILL bail you guys out and you can't say no for an answer!," gives a lot of people pause as to what dictatorial powers this guy seems to "have" now. (Assuming a properly staffed Supreme Court that will interpret the Constitution, not legislate from the bench's right wing or its left, rules on the Bailout Bill)







Elaine Supkis http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/ gave me an idea:






She has a picture here, http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_matters/2008/10/elaine-meine-11.html of Nicolas Sarkozy with her own comments. So I have a similar picture now, given that Paulson has been given to raiding the Cave of Wealth and Death by issuing Treasuries against our future wealth so he can bailout and partially nationalize various banks.


Aqui:

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Over One Quadrillion Dollars in Derivatives

That is greater than the value of all things on Earth.

The unravelling of these derivatives could eat up all wealth.

And the $700 billion bailout now before Congress will be a joke if this derivatives bubble were to suddenly burst.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/demeritt061608.html

The Bank of International Settlements recently reported that the amount of
outstanding derivatives has now reached the $1.14 quadrillion mark ($548
Trillion in listed credit derivatives plus $596 trillion in notional [or face
value] OTC derivatives)....

Derivatives, as you may know, are essentially unregulated, high-risk credit bets. Unlike the earnest farmer who might employ a futures contract to hedge the price of the beans he’s worked so hard to grow, many of today’s institutions use futures, forwards, options, swaps, swaptions, caps, collars and floors—any kind of leverage device they can cook up—to bet the hell out of virtually anything.


What drives derivatives, at their very roots (if you can somehow get back that far), are base assets that get leveraged to a demented degree. Martin Mayer writing for the Brookings Institute, said, “the receiver of the payments on these loans or securities has bought the securities for the duration of the swap on 95% margin, even though the law says nobody can buy securities without putting up half the price.”


Extrapolated, $1.14 quadrillion in assets “owned” on something like 95% margin has to be one of the scariest phenomena in economic history....

Eventually, shockingly, something will happen. Some bank will slip up, some mathematician will miscalculate or the Fed just won’t react fast enough, and the whole [$1.14] quadrillion derivative complex will come tumbling down around our feet. Only it might not be [$1.14] quadrillion by then. It might be a whole lot more.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Resplendent Rant!

To begin with Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan among countless other criminals. Once Goldman Sachs was threatened, Hank pulled out the big bazooka, aimed it at the American taxpayer and pulled the trigger. These glorified captains of free market capitalism took every bit of risk and moral hazard inherent in the unregulated derivative minefield and jammed them right up our ass. I think George Bush, Barney Frank and Chuck Shumer got a few calls from their "base", demanding protection of their mansions, villas, Bentley's and cocaine. The CONSEQUENCES for this economic rape? None. AIG's Willumstad walks away with $7 million among numerous others. Like I said, right up the ass. We are on the hook for these losses to the tune of a minimum $500 billion. Remember when they told us the genocide in Iraq would only cost $50 million? $10 billion a month, $555 billion to date. It boggles the mind. On top of socializing the consequences, these corporate fascists changed as many of the "rules of the game" as they felt necessary to prevent the further loss of their own capital. Stock shorting was suspended on a triple witching hour day, read: drop dead to hedge funds and their short traders. When you make us rich we love ya, nothing more than a convenient scapegoat when losses mount. The SEC (Socializing Economic Crashes) suspended a bunch of other RULES to grease the wheels that is creating the Dow surge and corporate warm and fuzzies this morning. The numbers being thrown around are astounding, numbers that don't matter anymore.If these "people" think that they will be able to live happily ever after destroying our lives they are mistaken. As millions of Americans are thrown under the bus, losing jobs, homes, life savings and begin to starve, our violent human nature will take over. This violence will be directed at the people responsible, regardless of the number of Blackwater type folks they handsomely pay to protect them. There have been many prior posts here referring to ammo purchases at WalMart ect. in preparation for TLE, presumably for hunting and self defense. I humbly suggest a significant portion of these ammo purchases will be used for revenge and the ultimate settling of accounts. When TLE eventually does come to pass, there will be no mistaking the true baser instincts of human beings. Here on this blog we discuss all of the possible effects of the crashing oil economy and how we will grow basil, transform front yards into gardens and barter for survival. The FBI estimates(1997 data) that there are over 200 million privately-owned firearms in the US, 12 guns for every man, woman, and child in the country, millions of rounds of ammo, back in 1997. We've stocked up a bit since then to a tune of 4.5 million guns a year. That's a minimum of 250 million weapons, including almost anything the military has in the hands of Joe Six Pack. When you look at America's history it is painfully obvious that when push comes to shove, we have absolutely no qualms about taking what we need to survive and bombing, shooting and killing anyone in the way. We have all referred generically to the fact "millions will suffer during TLE." A clearer, more concise description would be that we will first kill the people most responsible for our situation and then kill each other to survive, our history and human nature being what they are. It will take years and decades if ever, to reach the point where we are singing Kumbaya, churning butter, dancing in barns and living in the world JHK envisions in World made by Hand. The Treasury Sec. may have taken the first shot. The people, as they did in the American Revolution, will have the last. Catch ya later, there's a hunting sale at Big 5. Sorry folks, anyone who shops at WalMart REALLY doesn't give a fuck about this country. America's biggest corporation creates its wealth exactly like the rest of Wall Street. WalMart xternalizes and socializes their expenses and produces everything they sell on the backs of the poor and powerless. Period. When you shop at WalMart, you directly support the ass fucking we are taking at this very moment. Nuff said...

Posted by: djcrow22 September 19, 2008 at 12:54 PM

http://http//jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/09/a-ripe-moment/comments/page/15/#comments

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Storm Surge in Galveston Higher than Reported

Yesterday, the highest storm surge reported was 11 feet at Galveston and 13-1/2 feet in Galveston Bay. Turns out, the surge was, apparently, higher than that in places.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane-ike/index.ssf/2008/09/in_galveston_homes_underwater.html

Snip

GALVESTON, Texas - Hurricane Ike's winds left behind a barrier island city more than three-quarters submerged in water and riddled with house fires that were still spreading in late morning.

A vast western stretch of the island outside of the thick concrete seawall remained completely impassable, and many interior subdivisions experienced flooding. But as winds and surges died down, waters were receding noticeably.

At the height of the storm, residents of the city's downtown and "Strand" district, reported flooding reaching the second floors of some buildings.


Snip
Ike's strongest storm surges forced the Rushing family out their first-story window and onto their 17-foot speedboat. The family of six dodged submerged dump trucks on a 20-block odyssey to the San Luis Resort, a safe haven where media and city officials were riding out the storm.
Submerged dump trucks, eh? Those things are about 12 feet high. Add 2 or 3 feet for the typical barrier island roadway elevation and you get 14 to 15 feet.


City Manager Steve LeBlanc said helicopter fly-overs by state officials have been the only source of information about the island's west end, home to a slew of raised beach houses and subdivisions that make up 47 percent of the city's tax base.

"We can see there are rooftops," LeBlanc said. "As far as getting there and getting to them, there's just no way to do it."

Debris covers the I-45 Causeway Southbound.



http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/13/13012081/600xPopupGallery.jpg


Here's an overview of the damage. The surge still didn't overtop the seawall (except maybe at low spots), which saved all the resort hotels and luxury sea view condminiums that were on land.


http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid823433113/bctid1785350224


But debris did get over the seawall in some places but didn't make it past the sidewalk across the street.



http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/13/13009273/600xPopupGallery.jpg



Saturday, September 13, 2008

JPMorganChase Tower, Other Skyscrapers Damaged in Houston


The streets below are littered with computers, post-it notes, confidential files and pieces furniture.



Video here. http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=4226712&cl=9718347&src=news

In Galveston, the damage is not as bad as feared (11-foot storm surge against a 17-foot seawall). Maximum reported storm surge anywhere along the cost is 13-1/2 feet. Looks like we got off lucky; maybe the refineries will start up soon and gasoline prices will come on down.

So how come the reincarnetion of Dwight D. Eisenhower didn't leave the Houston oil infrastructure totally wrecked? Who knows???

Friday, September 12, 2008

General, President and now HURRICANE Dwight D. Eisenhower

Americans really liked Ike back in the 1950's but not as much as we embraced the Military Industrial Complex --- it enabled out Happy Motoring! lifestyle for far longer than it could have been sustained otherwise.

Well, he WARNED us of the MIC in his Farewell Address (1960-61). But did we listen and take heed? NoooOOOOOooooooo-o! So now he's back and he's sorely pissed and he's headed for HOUSTON: capital of the US oil industry!

http://www.drudgereport.com/

I don't agree with Matt Drudge's politics, but his link set can't be beat when it comes to Ba-a-a-a-ad tropical storms!

CIA Quashed FBI Terrorist Investigations.

Result? 9-11 happened. No joke. Damn it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/significant-new-information-details-cia/story.aspx?guid=%7BFBC51EE0-675F-4C4B-9FB1-DBA2CBE39FE1%7D&dist=hppr

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Quelle Scandale!!!

Wide-Ranging Ethics Scandal Emerges at Interior Dept.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/washington/11royalty.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=business&pagewanted=print

WASHINGTON — As Congress prepares to debate expansion of drilling in taxpayer-owned coastal waters, the Interior Department agency that collects oil and gas royalties has been caught up in a wide-ranging ethics scandal — including allegations of financial self-dealing, accepting gifts from energy companies, cocaine use and sexual misconduct.

In three reports delivered to Congress on Wednesday, the department’s inspector general, Earl E. Devaney, found wrongdoing by a dozen current and former employees of the Minerals Management Service, which collects about $10 billion in royalties annually and is one of the government’s largest sources of revenue other than taxes.

“A culture of ethical failure” besets the agency, Mr. Devaney wrote in a cover memo.

And this has been going on for much of the Bush Administration! X(

Change two letters in "Palin" and you get "Putin."

Only the Alaska governor is not nearly as smart. Not by a long shot.

http://www.laprogressive.com/2008/09/05/alaskans-speak-in-a-frightened-whisper-palin-is-%E2%80%9Cracist-sexist-vindictive-and-mean%E2%80%9D/

And allegedly, she also has supported secession for Alaska. If Alaska were to secede, Vladimir Putin would not hesitate to gobble it up like candy! And where would Sarah be then?

Friday, August 22, 2008

New "Entering America" Sign


This is a curious sign. Actually it's more black humor than anything else, ln light of China has over a trillion US$ of our debt. Plus a Foreign Exchange hoard of over two trillion US$. The scary part it, it might become reality someday! :-O Aye yi yi!!!
And who or what inspired me to make this sign? Elaine Meinel Supkis ( http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/), blogger on many subjects, with her numerous blogs that informs her readers that WE are BANKRUPT and that China, Russia, and other countries that don't particularly like us are the ones holding our foreign trade debt and a big chunk of our other debts!


Thursday, August 21, 2008

Drop in Crude Supplies for Major Western Oil Cos

Looks like those of us in the West will have to get more and more of our oil from countries that are not exactly friendly to us... like Russia!

http://august%2019,%202008http//www.nytimes.com/2008/08/19/business/19oil.html?_r=2&em=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1219338466-Y9ZebNyYZkPpPJHSDpbDAg


Oil production has begun falling at all of the major Western oil companies, and they are finding it harder than ever to find new prospects even though they are awash in profits and eager to expand.


Part of the reason is political. From the Caspian Sea to South America, Western oil companies are being squeezed out of resource-rich provinces. They are being forced to renegotiate contracts on less-favorable terms and are fighting losing battles with assertive state-owned oil companies.


And much of their production is in mature regions that are declining, like the North Sea.


The reality, experts say, is that the oil giants that once dominated the global market have lost much of their influence — and with it, their ability to increase supplies.


“This is an industry in crisis,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, the associate director of Rice University’s energy program in Houston. “It’s a crisis of leadership, a crisis of strategy and a crisis of what the future looks like for the supermajors,” a term often applied to the biggest oil companies. “They are like a deer caught in headlights. They know they have to move, but they can’t decide where to go.”

And the oil companies are at their wit's end, due in no small part to the quieting down of war talk against Iran and the cracking down on speculators, both of which have pushed the price of oil down.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

China Signs Contract for Iraqi Oil

China's coming-out party is not yet over and already the Dragon has changed direction in a way we least expect. To the detriment of BushCo, naturally. HAHAHA.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/08/19/iraq-china-oil-markets-equity-cx_ll_0819markets21_print.html



Asia Seen Digging Into Middle East
Lionel Laurent, 08.19.08, 12:50 PM ET

LONDON - The Asian energy invasion of the Middle East looked set to deepen on Tuesday, with China's state-owned oil company reportedly close to an oil-service deal in Iraq--the first of its kind since the American invasion--while construction firms from Japan and Korea also hoped to get a slice of two big export refinery projects in Saudi Arabia.

China in particular has proven particularly eager to strike deals in the Middle East, at a time when it is looking to feed its booming domestic appetite for energy. Iraq could be its next destination, according to published reports, which said Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani as saying that he would fly to China at the end of August to discuss a $1.2 billion oil-service deal with China National Petroleum Co.

The deal would replace a production-sharing agreement signed under the former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and would be the first oil-service arrangement since the 2003 invasion. Shahristani was cited as saying that discussions with China have been taking place for a year.




Oh my God!!! BushCo sent our troops into Iraq mainly to get at the oil *cheap* for the US oil companies. Now China is getting some of it instead. And if they outbid all others on ALL the Iraqi oil contracts??? Oh, that'll be rich.

Friday, August 15, 2008

New Route Markers for US Routes

The following eight are for US Highways that are *not* of Interstate Quality and possess a distinctly 50s retro look with the banner inside the colored shield. The color coding would be for different types of routes, like Cody Goodman's signs at The Great International Highway Makeover and AJ Froggie's idea for bannered routes at Magnolia Meanderings. The first sign would be for the mainlines. It is red, white and blue with either "United States" for the banner, as shown, or with "US" alternatlvely.





This next would be for the posted Alternate Routes; the numeral field and the banner switch colors.




This one would be for the Truck Routes, black for heavy trucking.




The next one would be for the Business Routes. Its field is green, the color of money. All Business and City Routes that link to the mainline at both ends plus all "Loop" Routes would be marked as "Business Loop" as shown. All mainlines that have Bypass Routes going around an urban area would also become Business Loops; the Bypasses would then become parts of the mainlines. Also, all Business and City Routes that link to the mainline at one end *only* plus all "Spur" Routes would be similarly marked as "Business Spur."




Now this one with the "TOLL" banner could be for tolled sections of mainlines that are not otherwise interstate quality. It could also be used for tollways if it is decided on a national basis not to use the two US route markers shown in the pervious post for the US freeways and tollways.



These last three are the pleasure-oriented travel routes, brown on white. The first of these three would be for the Historic Routes. The last two would be for Scenic Routes. An' a tip' o' the ol' hat to RVD of The Great International Highway Makeover for the last one -- his US Highways 1 to 830 webpage with its Route A1A idea inspired that last one!










An Idea for US Routes of Interstate Quality but are not on the System



These two are intended for US Highways with Interstate characteristics, i.e., fully-controlled access with breakdown lanes, where possible. These two have the "modern" US Highway Sign shape outlined blue shield with with contrasting blue surround and differently-colored banner representing a fully controlled access expressway -- same as for Quebec's Autoroutes. The one with the red banner would be for freeways and the other would be for tollways.


Thursday, August 14, 2008

Why "Fin des Voies Rapides?"



Why "Fin des Voies Rapides?" Curious, but simple. It all goes back to a trip I took with my partner, Andrew, in September, 1993. We were living in Boston at the time and we decided at the drop of a hat to visit Montreal. So we drove up I-93 from Boston, to I-89, then in to Montreal via various Quebec Autoroutes (expressways aka freeways). As we came in to the city on the Autoroute Bonaventure (the A-10 expressway) I noticed a huge overhead sign bearing the message above. 1500 feet ahead, the expressway came to an end, dumping all its traffic onto the city streets.

So what does this mean for the implication of peak oil? Peak oil means that once the maximum production has been reached, the amount of oil available would gradually decline. The effect on the US would be intensified, since the oil EXPORTERS would be consuming MORE of their DECLINING production. So in short, peak oil means the approaching end of our "life in the fast lane." The French version would be IMO, "fin des voies rapides." :)

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

A Word on Interstate Numbers and Signs

There are two interstates who stick out like sore thumbs ‘coz their numbers are out of sequence: I-238 in the San Francisco Bay Area and I-99 in central Pennsylvania. The former was probably just as well since locals have always known it as the 238. The latter, which used to be US-220 and still is, is the result of GOP political corruption and pigheadedness! (I have also heard that certain interests in Penna. wanted I-67 for the next freeway over... so that area would have two out-of place Interstates: one of which would be more suited for Maryland’s Eastern Shore and the Carolina Low Country or Mass. State Road 3 to Cape Cod, and the other one would be more suited running north from Indianapolis into Michigan!)

And there are rumors afoot that the Feds want to replace the familiar shield with a square to cut down on wastage of resources. If that is true, I believe they would pick a truely ugly design like this:






I would rather they choose a better, more colorful design. Here are two examples:

Defnitely easy to understand and a classier design than the hideous shield-in-a-square design that would be similar to the one the FHWA mandated for our US Highways’ signs, including Florida, which used to have a wonderful kaleidescopic array of such signs!

And with my design, something could be done about the two obnoxiusly out-of-place road numbers!

California’s I-238:












And of course, Pennsylvania’s notorious Bud Shuster Freeway!












Friday, August 8, 2008

Good Day!

This is the start of something new... if peak oil were no object. But since peak oil is upon us, life in the fast lane will soon be OVER! Hence the title, Fin des Vois Rapides (If Peak Oil Were no Object).

Topics I will post on will include (but may be more!):

  • Effects of Peak Oil (what does it mean?)
  • Our Dying Economy
  • Our Overbuilt Suburbia
  • Our Roads and Highways
  • Our Railways
  • Fantasy Roads
  • Fantasy Route Markers (I like these!)

I hope you like it -- enjoy!