Clouds Tracking Further North Just as Predicted by the 'Warmists'.

Thanks to the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast.

The Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast.

Yes, I'm using the Denialists' term for climate scientists and others concerned about global warming.  It ought to get the Denialists' goat to be proven wrong!  See below.

Now from the Washington Post, a new analysis of satellite photo records shows that over the past four decades, since 1983 in fact, the cloud and storm tracks have been adjusting their positions poleward.

‘The most singular of all the things that we have found': Clouds study alarms scientists

Chris Mooney - The Washington Post - 14 July 2016.

[A]ccording to leading climate scientist Veerabhadran Ramanathan — credited with discovering that chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, are actually a greenhouse gas, among other major findings — a new study this week showing that clouds already are shifting their distributions across the Earth, and in a way predicted by climate change models, stands out. And not in a good way. 

The study was led by Ramanathan’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography colleague Joel Norris, though Ramanathan said he was not involved in the work and didn’t know about it until shortly before publication. But Ramanathan said that the study basically confirms that there’s nothing to prevent the world from reaching the high levels of warming that have long been feared — except for our own swift policy actions, that is. 

“My reaction was, my goodness,” Ramanathan said. “Maybe the 4 to 5 degree warming, certainly we were all wishing there was some certainty that would make it go away. So I consider the findings of this paper, the data shows major reorganization of the cloud system.” 

This matters because clouds are fundamental regulators of how much solar radiation makes it to the Earth’s surface (rather than being reflected back to space by white cloud tops), and how much infrared or “longwave” radiation escapes back to space once again.

For more information, click here, here and here.

But you know, what really grinds my gears is that people are still saying that "our own swift policy actions" can "prevent the world from reaching the high levels of warming that have long been feared." How are we going to do that? According to Robertscribbler, "Current greenhouse gas levels — topping out near 408 parts per million CO2 (and 490 parts per million CO2e) this year — will need to fall in order to prevent 1-3 C of additional warming." We're approaching 2 degrees C above 1880s levels already -- and although the planet's temperature will probably retreat to give us a 1.2 deg C avearge for all twelve months this year -- Ramanathan is right that current CO2 / CO2e levels are going to ramp warming up to the 4-5 deg. C mark.  We'll need to reduce the CO2 / CO2e levels. How are we going to avert that? Plant lots of trees even as multiple demands are causing deforestation all over the planet?

We need clean fuels to replace fossil fuels now and wind and solar may not be enough. How are we going to do that?  It seems right now, despite their ongoing financial troubles (which may cause fossil fuel production to remorselessly decline by way of disinvestment over the next several years), the fossil fuel industries and their bought (mainly "conservative") politicians are in the catbird seat right now, driving our fossil fuel dependency and this whole climate mess!

May is the 8th consecutive hottest month EVAH!

At least since before the records have been kept, and probably since the Eemian period a hundred-ten-thousand years ago.

Anyway, here's the latest from Robertscribbler with tips o' th' hat to: Ryan in New England, June, and dtlange.

May Marks 8th Consecutive Record Hot Month in NASA’s Global Temperature Measure

Image source: NASA GISS.

May of 2016 was the warmest May since record keeping began for NASA 137 years ago. 

It is now the 8th record hot month in row. In other words, since October, every month has been the hottest such month ever recorded (October vs October comparison, November vs November etc). And May’s record is just the most recent high mark during a period that has now vastly exceeded all previous measures for global temperature tracking. 

The month itself was 0.93 C above NASA’s 1951-1980 baseline measure. It’s the first month since October that readings fell below the 1 C anomaly mark. A range that before 2015 had never before been breached in the 136 year climate record and likely during all of the approximate 12,000 year period that marks the Holocene geological epoch. 

It’s a reading that is fully 1.15 C above 1880s averages.  

A 1.2 C annual 2016 departure is firmly within the range of estimates for global temperatures that occurred within the Eemian climate period around 115,000 years ago. At that time, global ocean levels were between 16 and 25 feet higher than they are today. And if such warm temperatures continue for any significant duration, we could expect oceans to at least rise by as much (especially considering the fact that about 15-20 feet worth of sea level rise is locked into the ice of glaciers that are now in the process of heading into the global ocean).

 Image source: The Keeling Curve.

Atmospheric CO2 levels peaked at 407.7 parts per million in May as well. A jump of about 3.8 parts per million above peak readings during May of 2015.

If carbon dioxide levels were to remain so high we could expect global temperatures to, over the course of 300-500 years, hit near 3 C above 1880s levels and oceans to rise by as much as 60-120 feet. Adding in methane and other greenhouse gasses — current CO2 equivalent for all global heating gas estimates are now in the range of 490 parts per million. Enough to warm the Earth by about 4.6 C over hundreds of years and to, among other things, eventually raise oceans by 120 t0 200 feet.

For more click here.

Now speaking of destabilised glaciers and ice sheets, the Larsen 'C' Ice Shelf, right next door to the Larsen 'B' one which collapsed and shattered in 2004, is now in a more fragile and unstable state than previously thought.

From dtlange:

Antarctic Discovery Reveals Larsen C Ice Shelf Weakness 

Researchers report discovery of a massive subsurface ice layer, at least 16 km across, several kilometres long and tens of metres deep, located in an area of intense melting and intermittent ponding on the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica which may suggest the ice shelf is even more fragile than thought.

reportingclimatescience.com/2016/06/14/larsen-c

Well here's a bit of good news: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) reports that that “coal and gas will begin their terminal decline in less than a decade.”

June links to the Bloomberg News article (peak fossil fuels for electricity by 2025); this from Ryan in New England:

Here is the core finding of BNEF’s “annual long-term view of how the world’s power markets will evolve in the future,” their New Energy Outlook (NEO): 

"Cheaper coal and cheaper gas will not derail the transformation and decarbonisation of the world’s power systems. By 2040, zero-emission energy sources will make up 60% of installed capacity. Wind and solar will account for 64% of the 8.6TW [1 Terawatt = 1,000 Gigawatts] of new power generating capacity added worldwide over the next 25 years, and for almost 60% of the $11.4 trillion invested." 

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/06/13/3787700/coal-gas-plants-cheap-renewables/ 

And the reasons?

First, renewable energy benefits from manufacturing economies of scale. Second,  Fossil fuels are finite resources that are dependent upon extractive mining. Third, Cheaper coal, oil and gas, due to increased renewables and lower demand otherwise, means that less oil, coal and gas will be extracted: this means Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Peak Gas will be passed. Fourth, Once this begins to happen, the fossil fuel industry is put on death ground and will have to switch to renewables or squash them through political control. (Credit Robertscribbler)

But the caveat is that the manufacture and build-out of renewable energy infrastructure is dependent upon fossil fuels! Which means if there is a future shortage of fossil fuels, especially if Hillary or Trump gets us into World War 3, renewables may get the short end of the stick so that shorter-term needs are met instead.

Even with the Bloomberg forecast of 60% catchment of all electricity by zero-carbon energy sources by 2040 (a huge feat by itself if it happens) still runs bad risks from the perspective of climate change, because it implies we'll be stuck with 435 to 460 ppm CO2 and around 510 to 570 ppm CO2e by then.

And another thing we need to beware of: Wall Street is still investing in fossil fuels: they are betting that fossil fuels will continue to be extracted and consumed, perhaps even at the expense of zero-carbon sources.

From June:

World’s Banks Driving Climate Chaos with Hundreds of Billions in Extreme Energy Financing 

Wall Street continues to back the most polluting fossil fuel industries “at the expense of some of the most vulnerable communities on the planet,” states new report.
The report, $horting the Climate: Fossil Fuel Finance Report Card 2016 (pdf), put forth by Rainforest Action Network (RAN), BankTrack, Sierra Club, and Oil Change International, evaluates the private global banking industry based on its financing for fossil fuels… 

So big extreme fossil fuel investments are massive bets that governments won’t stop climate change. 

http://commondreams.org/news/2016/06/14/worlds-banks-driving-climate-chaos-hundreds-billions-extreme-energy-financing

Some of the big playaz are Citigroup, Bank of America, JP[irates]Morgan Chase, and Barclays. And our candidates, where do they stand? Let's see, now.... Donald Trump doesn't believe Global Warming is for real and promises to end all funding for climate monitoring by the US. Hillary, although she says a good line, is in the pockets of Wall Street, especially Goldman Sachs, and has considerable backing from Fossil Fuels interests. Which means she'll give lip service to combatting climate change but pursue "Drill, baby, drill!" policies once elected, just like Obama. Oh, great. So these two pose to threaten Near Term Extinction upon us not only by World War 3, but also the utter collapse of civilisation by Dangerous Climate Change - the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast. At least with the latter we won't go extinct! 

For more, click here.

The Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast is at it! Greenland Melts, April Record Warmth, Bad Financial Damages Prediction.

Greenland has started to melt again... second majorly abnormal melt spike of the season.

Tip o' the hat to Tom Yulsman at Twitter and dtlange at Robertscribbler.

Source: Twitter: Tom Yulsman @yulsman

Source: Greenland Today, National Snow and Ice Data Center

From Discover: "The Arctic will 'go through hell this year,' says one prominent scientist."

On April 11, a dramatic early spike in melting of snow and ice at the surface of Greenland’s ice sheet prompted a Danish climate scientist to say that she and her colleagues were “incredulous.”
Now, there has been a second bout of unusual melting.

You can see both of them in the graph above from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC. It charts the percentage of the Greenland Ice Sheet experiencing surface melting. In both cases, the thaw exceeded 10 percent of the ice sheet’s area.

Also record warmth (except in Berlin, NY and other areas in northeast North America and in Europe) gripped the globe last month.

Tip o' the hat to redskylite at Robertscribbler.

Source: NASA via the BBC.

The above graphic shows April temps to be 1.11 degrees C (2.0 F) above the 1951-1980 mean, or about 1.33 C (2.4 F) above 1880s values.

From the BBC: "April was the seventh month in a row that broke global temperature records, Nasa figures show."

Last month smashed the previous record for April by the largest margin ever, the data show.

That makes it three months in a row that the monthly record was broken by the largest margin ever.

But in terms of its departure from the 1951-1980 temperature average used by Nasa, April was equal with January 2016.

The Beeb also admits in the above linked article that with the new record temperatures, it will be quite difficult to meet the 1.5 C (2.7 F) goad set by COP21 in Paris last year.

All in all, the first four months of this year are running at 1.43 C (2.6F) above 1880s levels.

And the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast will be doing quite a number on global industrial civilization, putting 13 billion people and $US 158 trillion in infrastructure, buildings, farms, etc.

Tip o' the' hat to Ryan in New England at Robertscribbler.

From the Guardian: "Climate change puts 1.3bn people and $158tn at risk, says World Bank."

Source: Tony Karuba/AFP/Getty Images/the Guardian.

The global community is badly prepared for a rapid increase in climate change-related natural disasters that by 2050 will put 1.3 billion people at risk, according to the World Bank.

Urging better planning of cities before it was too late, a report published on Monday from a Bank-run body that focuses on disaster mitigation, said assets worth $158tn – double the total annual output of the global economy – would be in jeopardy by 2050 without preventative action.

“With climate change and rising numbers of people in urban areas rapidly driving up future risks, there’s a real danger the world is woefully unprepared for what lies ahead,” said John Roome, the World Bank Group’s senior director for climate change.

“Unless we change our approach to future planning for cities and coastal areas that takes into account potential disasters, we run the real risk of locking in decisions that will lead to drastic increases in future losses.”

According to the Guardian in this same article, The World Bank Report reveals that the coastal cities are also sinking, compounding the sea-level rise... which will not be uniform across the globe. One country on one continent in particular is really gonna get in trouble...

All courtesy of the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast.

Climate Central predicts we will keep on feeding the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast more and more through 2040.

The Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast. Source: Sandara.

The misleading headline reads:

Global 2040 Forecast Sees Only Slight Fall in Fossil Fuels

Article by Bobby Magill, Climatecentral.org, 11 May 2016

I doubt he wrote the headline, though.

Now, snippets from the rest of the story.

Despite the urgency to cut greenhouse gas emissions as climate change bears down on the globe, fossil fuel use is not likely to change much in the coming decades. Though renewable energy will grow quickly though 2040, gasoline and diesel will still move most of the world’s vehicles, and coal will still be the largest single source of carbon emissions.

Those are the conclusions of a forecast released by the federal government on Wednesday for how the world will use energy and what its carbon dioxide emissions will be over the next 25 years.

Feeding the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast.
Gasoline and diesel will likely remain the globe's biggest transportation fuels in the coming decades.
Credit: Michael Kappel/flickr via Climate Central.

The US Energy Information Administration predicts that as a whole, we will be feeding the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast more and more emissions (those are the derivatives, dear reader) through 2040:

Credit: US EIA via Climate Central.

Global carbon emissions from energy consumption are expected to grow at an average rate of 1 percent per year between 2012 and 2040, growing a total 34 percent in that time as fossil fuels provide the world with more than three quarters of its energy.

“With existing policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will go from about 32 billion metric tons in 2012 to something like 43 billion metric tons out to the year 2040,” EIA administrator Adam Sieminski said.

And will consumption of fossil fuels decrease as a whole though 2040? Noooooooo...!

Look here:

Credit: US EIA via Climate Central.

Unless there are unexpected changes in global climate policy over the next 25 years, coal will still be the world’s king of carbon emissions in 2040.

Coal is expected to account for 38 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions in 2040, down from 43 percent in 2012. Annual growth of coal use by that time is expected to be about 0.6 percent. In 1990, coal was responsible for 39 percent of global carbon emissions. Natural gas, by comparison, will account for 26 percent of global carbon emissions in 2040, up from 20 percent in 2012.

Although renewables will enlarge from about 12 to about 25 percent, fossil fuels will still hold the lion's share at 75 percent. And the actual amount of fossil fuels that will be consumed in 2014 will be larger than the actual amount consumed in 2012!

More here.

We will probably break through 500 ppm of CO₂ in the Atmosphere vs 400 ppm today, and definitely through 500 ppm of CO₂e. We're at 485 ppm CO₂e already and we're already making the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast more and more active! See my sister blog, 2016 is strange!.

Imagine how bad the Fossil Fuels Derivatives Beast will behave when we're at 500ppm.

Tip o' th' hat to Elaine Meinel Supkis.