Suppose Consumption of Fossil Fuels Were to Peak in 2030

Even though, so far, they appear to be peaking due to the levelling off of demand, due to the ramp-up of renewables and because of affordability and financial reasons, like too high a debt load.

Source: Sam Caranas, Arctic News.

But if the did, a certain Grebulocities figured out a possible end point for atmospheric carbon content and posted it a a response to the post "Dark Ages America: Climate" at The Archdruid Report blog, in which the archdruid, John Michael Greer, suggested that fossil fuel emissions might peak in 2030 -- this was on July 30, 2014 mind you:

Now if only I could somehow find a time machine or a longevity potion and see if you're right... 

I just made a crude spreadsheet in Excel to see what type of CO2 concentration we might peak at under the assumption that the rate of change of the CO2 concentration peaks around 2030, falling to 0 by 2100. Under my model, the CO2 concentration rises by 0.55% this year (roughly equal to its average growth rate over the last decade) and the growth rate increases by 0.01% per year from now until 2029 (at 0.7%/year), then falls by 0.01%/year until it bottoms out at 0 by 2099. 

The peak concentration under these assumptions is "only" 562 ppm, obviously reached in 2099, conveniently about double the preindustrial level where temperatures were 0.8 C cooler than present. If the mean of most model estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity is correct, we see about 3 C/doubling. So under these really crude assumptions, we've got a world 2.2 C warmer than present. Of course the error bars are huge, and they're larger on the warmer side. But if this is roughly where we end up, we're in the mid-Pliocene warm period at about 3.3 Ma, or perhaps a little worse. This is inconvenient because sea levels were 25 m higher than present, with no West Antarctic ice sheet and little or no Greenland ice sheet, but the East Antarctic ice sheet still existed and contained most of its current mass.

Well the CO₂ did rise by about 2.25 ppm on average from 2014 through 2015.by about 0.57% which is roughly on target with his prediction of 0.55%. But from 2015 through 2016? Well we don't have the minimum yet, but the CO₂ rise according to the graph maxima was about 3.5 ppm or about 0.88% according to the 2015 average content. And that's not even accounting for the fact that CO₂ content for 2016 finally peaked out at around 408 ppm in April - May, shown below.

Annual CO₂ pulse on Keeler Curve through July 2016.
Source: Mauna Loa Observatory, NOAA.

It appears that the 3.5 ppm rise is now being maintained. Although we're just coming off an El Niño, it's possible, especially when compared to the graph at the top, that we are having increased positive feedbacks or less negative feedbacks or both from natural sources, because it appears we did not have a nearly as big a Carbon Dioxide increase the last time we had an El Niño as strong as the one we've just had, i.e., the one in 1997-1998.

So will the atmosphere's Carbon Dioxide content be as little as 560 ppm? Don't know. But given the present rate of fossil fuels burning through 2030 and a new normal of 3.5 ppm for annual Carbon Dioxide content increase, we could be looking at 450 ppm or so around 2030, which makes the terminal content that much larger. Robertscribbler reports that under Business as Usual (IPCC's RCP 8.5) it could be as high as 936 ppm with a average planetary temperature increase at that time of around 4 to 5 degrees Celsius (7 to 9 Fahrenheit). Will it actually get that bad? Don't know.

But I DO know that global warming is NOT a myth!

A Pence Presidency?

A Pence Administration also means that the neocons' Poking the Russian Bear will continue, even if it results in WW3 and the lobbing of nukes.

Mike Pence in Bed with the Neocons.

Now the rumor mill has it that Trump is also in bed with the Russian banks, to the tune of $100 million or more. This must give Putin headaches, because the saying goes, if you owe someone $1,000 you can't pay, have a problem. But if you owe someone a $1,000,000,000 you can't pay THEY have a problem.

Now what will Putin do, when Trump tells the Russian banks to go screw? He can't send any of "his" (according to Newsweek) Russian mafia assassins to take Trump out. And he can't exactly escalate the Ukranian proxy war to full-blown war in Eastern (Central) Europe without breaking the NATO tripwire.

And the lobbing of all those nukes both sides own would create a twenty years' ice age (i.e., the nuclear winter).

"Retrotopia 2065" Finished Copy

This is the finished copy of the "Retrotopia ca 2065" map. Retrotopia is John Michael Greer's utopia for North America after an imagined civil war breaks out in 2029. (Well one might in actual life!)

Changes from the draft:

- Yukon and MacKenzie Deltas restored -- differential sea level change indicates that the sea level up on the Alaska and Yukon western and northern shores may stay the same or drop slightly due to the proximity to Greenland.

- Colorado area changed to match Maw Kernewek's map.

- West Virginia area - same.

- Missouri area - same.

- All the measles were taken off. (Tip to readers: never, never, never save as a GIF after working on one in MS Paint. Save it as a BMP or PNG instead.)

That is all.

Peak Oil (Demand) Front Update.

In a previous post on this subject, I posted a graph that indicated global oil demand will reach a new peak at the end of 2016, as well as supply. But now the blog Zero Hedge and the mainstream medium Bloomberg indicate that oil demand at least in the USA will drop this September and won't fully recover its summer peak.

First, from the credible mainstream source.

USA Oil Demand of previous years a good guideline to predict same for the remainder of 2016
Source: EIA via Bloomberg.

Oil Bulls Headed Over Demand Cliff as Refinery Shutdowns Loom - Bloomberg.

Beware, oil bulls: Just as U.S. oil production sinks low enough to drain supplies, demand is about to fall off a cliff. American gasoline consumption typically ebbs in August and September as vacationers return home, and refiners use that dip to shut for seasonal maintenance. Over the past five years, refiners’ thirst for oil has dropped an average of 1.2 million barrels a day from July to October. “People are looking ahead to the fall and are worried,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. “There’s more and more talk of prices going south of $40 and as a result people are going short.” Money managers added the most bets in a year on falling WTI crude prices during the week ended July 19, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. 

That pulled their net-long position to the lowest since March. WTI dropped 4.6% to $44.65 a barrel in the report week and traded at $44.14 at 11:53 a.m. Singapore time on Monday. With weekly Energy Information Administration data showing U.S. gasoline stockpiles at the highest seasonal level since at least 1990, refiners may shut sooner and for longer ahead of the Labor Day holiday in early September, the end of the driving season. “With gasoline supplies the highest since April, refiners may pull some projects forward,” said Tim Evans at Citi Futures Perspective. “This will take more support away the market and add to the broader problem of excess supply.

There's a video at the same Bloomberg article which shows that Oil Hovers Near Two-Month Lows on Weight of Fundamentals. For more, click here.

Now the blog.

Peak Oil 'Demand' & The Duelling Narratives Of Energy Inventories - Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge.

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. have fallen 23.9 million barrels since the end of April, but, as Bloomberg notes, oil bulls counting on further declines are fighting history. Over the past five years refiners’ crude demand has fallen an average of 1.2 million barrels a day from the peak in July to the low in October. “The rough part will be once refineries start going into maintenance,” said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seattle at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “We aren’t drawing down inventories very fast and the pressure on prices will increase.

For more, click here.

You see, both are in agreement about what is going to happen to oil demand this autumn -- since the kids will be going back to school and the adults, back to work. No more driving all over the countryside while on vacation.

And the latest? The supports just got kicked out of the oil price. Again. Down to $42.00 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate Crude today. How low will the price go? And will Wall Street and other financial and venture capital concerns lend more money to improve technology to get even more oil out once the price stabilizes and starts to increase if and when demand outstrips supply again?

And will global demand reach a new peak in 2017? That's a big question since a lot of people are talking up a new recession coming soon, later this year or in 2017. For more info on the economic front, The Automatic Earth is a good source aggregator.

Hat tip to Raúl Ilargi Meijer of The Automatic Earth.

"Retrotopia 2065" Second Draft of the Map.

Here's the second draft of the map I posted yesterday.

Other commenters remarked on Mr. Greer's big batch of tips he addressed to me and in turn, Mr. Greer came out with some more tips:

Ed-M, the Atlantic Republic is the present-day states of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland, with the eastern (not western) panhandle of West Virginia; Washington DC is technically Atlantic territory but it's basically a ruin inhabited by squatters. West Canada is BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, the Northwest Territories and the Yukon Territory; Nunavut, I should have said, is an independent nation, having united with Kalaallit Nunaat (aka Greenland) in 2042. There's also the Free City of Chicago, which is an independent (and gaudily corrupt) nation, and consists of Cook County. I think that's it!

So I made some changes, but I kept the 2 degrees' Centigrade seal level rise for the East and Gulf Coasts, because the author of the Dredd Blogg has indicated that these coasts will get the worst of the sea-level rises. For example, Miami-Dade and Fort Lauderdale have a solid foot of risen sea level compared with the global eight inches since 1870, today!. Therefore for a global six feet, expect between ten and twenty feet sea level rise for the two shorelines.

For proof, click on the Dredd Blog tag and you'll be directed to his Post Series page. Scroll down to EXTINCTION (Yes, it is real) and then to various series on SEA LEVEL CHANGE. You'll find many posts under these topics that show that sea-level rise from global warming is not uniform, but varies all over the planet -- another component of global weirding.  For example, one post in particular discusses past and future sea level rise around Miami (click here).

"Retrotopia 2065"

Over at The Archdruid Report, John Michael Greer has been writing a series called "Retrotopia." The first chapter was posted about November of last year and the series has had about its twentieth chapter posted. So I thought I'd make a little map of North America at about that time.  Mr. Greer gave me the following pointers:

Ed-M, the map's pretty simple. The Republic of New England and the Maritimes consists of the New England states from Massachusetts north, and the Maritime provinces that are now part of Canada. Quebec is Quebec. East Canada is Ontario, Manitoba, and points north. The Lakeland Republic is Ohio, West Virginia except for the western panhandle, Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Confederate States of America is the old Confederacy of 1861 minus Texas, and plus the southeastern quarter or so of Missouri. The Missouri Republic is the rest of Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas, along with all of Wyoming and Montana east of the Continental Divide and the northeastern third or so of Colorado. The Republic of Texas is Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and part of southern Colorado. The Republic of Deseret is Utah, Idaho minus the panhandle, and the portions of Colorado and Wyoming west of the continental divide. Arizona and Nevada are abandoned territory, uninhabitable due to climate change. The Republic of California is California, and the Cascade Republic is Washington, Oregon, the Idaho panhandle, and the portion of Montana west of the continental divide. Oh, and there's the Kingdom of Hawai'i and the Republic of Alaska, if you want to include them. Sea level has gone up about six feet; New Orleans, Galveston, and the Florida Keys no longer exist, and the southern end of Florida has been heavily eroded by rising seas and massive hurricanes, so it's not the same shape as it is today. Got it? 

And so with that information, I created a map.

I got the Atlantic/Florida/Gulf Coasts drownings from this photo here. I went by that photo's 2 degree Celsius projected sea level rise which looks about right but I think is a gross underestimate for a 2 deg C tempreature rise. And at the current Carbon Dioxide Levels? It's going to be worse: higher temps and higher sea level rise.

I also tweaked SF Bay, the Puget Sound and Vancouver BC area, the Cook Inlet (Anchorage AK), the Yukon Delta and the MacKensie Delta to account for a 6-foot rise. Of course, the water that far up North might not rise being it's so close to Greenland and all.

Peak Oil Now or Else! Says the Earth.

From Flassbeck Economics on the ability of the IPCC, governments and scientists' worst case scenarios to keep up with what's actually happening:

The reality of Anthropogenic Climate Disruption (ACD) continues to outstrip our ability to model worst-case scenarios, as it is happening so much faster than ever anticipated.Sixty-three percent of all human-generated carbon emissions have been produced in the last 25 years and science shows that there is a 40-year time lag between global emissions and climate impacts. This means that we have not even started to experience the consequences of our growing emissions (see here). In the meantime, nothing substantial, nothing efficient is happening to curb CO2 emissions.

For example:

• Late 2007:The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) announcesthat the planet will see a one degree Celsius temperature increase due to climate change by 2100.
• Late 2008: The Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research predicts a 2C increase by 2100.

We've already blown through the 1.0 degree Celsius (1.8 Fahrenheit) increase from 1880s levels, we'll see a 2 degree Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) increase before too long. 2025?

The further predictions are dire and portrays scenarios which are extremely bad.

To avoid them we have to get off of fossil fuels as soon as possible and start sequestering carbon as soon as possible too. But that essentially requires a change in the corporate-driven capitalist system and a change of heart in humanity in general, in the American people in particular. Will the latter occur as it needs to? Morris Berman says it ain't gonna happen.